Introduction:
With the relatively poor efficacy of current therapies for hepatitis
C (HCV), the treatment-eligible patient population is severely undertreated,
presenting a prime opportunity for drug development. This report provides an
in-depth view of HCV patient populations for a 15-year period, 2006–2021. The
HCV patient flow model is an annualized patient forecast that combines data
from multiple sources into one syndicated report:
- The base year of the patient forecast (2006) is informed by IMS
sales and volume data as well as patient-level claims data from
Pharmetrics, which provides data on the lines of therapy currently used to
treat HCV.
- DR used both a primary survey of 100 U.S. gastroenterologists and
hepatologists and the primary literature to inform assumptions that drive the
patient forecast (2007-2021).
The 15-year patient forecast is included with the report and
includes all of our assumptions, which can be modulated by clients to generate
custom scenarios. The model estimates diagnosis and drug-treatment rates in
both the HCV treatment-naive and HCV treatment-nonresponder subpopulations by
genotype on an annual basis. The model’s assumptions are based upon primary
research conducted by Decision Resources and on available data from published
research, conferences, population surveys, and audit databases—the model accounts
for the efficacy of therapy (first-, second-, and third-line) by HCV genotype,
incidence, mortality, and physician-informed assumptions regarding future
medical practice.