Introduction:
Last Updated 29 January 2010Despite the major impact of psoriasis on patients’ quality
of life, physicians believe many patients are untreated or undertreated,
offering important commercial opportunities for current and emerging agents
targeting this indication. During our ten-year forecast period, intense
competition between the TNF-α inhibitors etanercept and adalimumab and the
interleukin inhibitors ustekinumab and briakinumab will transform current
treatment algorithms and define new market leaders.
Questions Answered in This Report:
*
Interviewed dermatologists anticipate that the recently
launched TNF-α inhibitor adalimumab (Abbott/Eisai’s Humira) will gradually
displace the current market leader etanercept (Amgen/Pfizer/Takeda’s Enbrel).
How
will the potential launch of biosimilar etanercept change the dynamics within
the TNF-α class? Which other
emerging agents pose the highest threat to the TNF-α inhibitors?
*
Launch strategies for emerging interleukin inhibitors are
particularly aggressive, involving large long-term studies and head-to-head
trials with etanercept.
Will ustekinumab (Centocor Ortho
Biotech/Janssen-Cilag’s Stelara) or briakinumab (from Abbott) be positioned as
first-line biologics over the next ten years? How do dermatologists perceive
the competitive potential of these two drugs, and which one will emerge as the
class sales leader by 2018?
*
Efalizumab (Genentech/Merck Serono’s Raptiva) was withdrawn
from the market in 2009 following reports of increased risk of progressive
multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in efalizumab-treated psoriasis patients.
How
has this event colored dermatologists’ attitudes toward agents with limited
postmarketing data? To which therapies are efalizumab-treated patients being
switched?
*
Unlike previous years, when emerging topical agents offered
improvements primarily in formulation and/or administration convenience, the
current pipeline for mild psoriasis includes topicals with new mechanisms of
action.
What is the likely positioning of emerging topicals, and why? What
events will have the greatest impact on the market for mild psoriasis, and will
new sales leaders be established?Scope:
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 44 country-specific interviews with
thought-leading dermatologists.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed prevalence of four psoriasis
subpopulations—remission, mild, moderate, severe.
Population segments in market forecast: Moderate to
severe psoriasis and mild psoriasis.
Emerging therapies: Phase
II: 12 drugs; Phase III: 3 drugs; preregistration: 0 drugs; registered: 1 drug.
Coverage of 3 select Phase I products.
Market forecast features: Using a proprietary
patient-flow model, we forecast population sizes and drug sales for the total
psoriasis population, the moderate to severe psoriasis subpopulation, and the
mild psoriasis subpopulation through 2018.