 Pharmacor --
June 2006
 Introduction:
Breast cancer (CaB), the most common cancer in women
worldwide, has direct treatment costs of nearly $7 billion annually in the
United States alone, according to the U.S. National Cancer Institute. The
incorporation of trastuzumab (Genentech/Roche/Chugai’s Herceptin) for
HER2-overexpressing patients and aromatase inhibitors for
hormone-receptor-positive patients into the adjuvant population is driving the
robust growth of the CaB market.
Questions Answered in This Report:
 Following positive Phase III data, trastuzumab is being
incorporated into adjuvant treatment of high-risk patients who overexpress
HER2. How will the market dynamics change because of increasing use of
trastuzumab in the adjuvant population?
Lapatinib, a small-molecule HER2 tyrosine kinase inhibitor,
will become a second treatment option for patients overexpressing HER2. Will
the approval of lapatinib steal share from the highly lucrative market created
by trastuzumab?
Recently presented data on paclitaxel plus the VEGF monoclonal
antibody bevacizumab show a twofold increase in progression-free survival in
first-line metastatic CaB. How will VEGF-directed agents fare in the clinic
and the marketplace?
First-line use of aromatase inhibitors has dramatically
increased in the adjuvant setting. How will the market dynamics change owing
to increasing competition among the three aromatase inhibitors, letrozole,
anastrozole, and exemestane?
Scope:
Markets: United States, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 40 country-specific interviews with
CaB specialists.
Epidemiology: Incidence of stage I CaB; incidence of
stage II CaB; incidence of stage III CaB; incidence of stage IV CaB; prevalence
of stage I CaB; prevalence of stage II CaB; prevalence of stage III CaB;
prevalence of stage IV CaB; incidence of premenopausal ER- CaB; incidence of premenopausal
ER+ CaB; incidence of postmenopausal ER- CaB; incidence of postmenopausal ER+
CaB.
Patient segments in market forecast: Chemotherapy
patient segments: adjuvant and neoadjuvant, metastatic first line, metastatic
second line, metastatic third and subsequent lines. Hormonal therapy patient
segments: premenopausal adjuvant and neoadjuvant, post menopausal adjuvant and
neoadjuvant, metastatic first line, metastatic second and subsequent lines.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 9 drugs; Phase III: 8
drugs.
Market: Using a proprietary patient-flow model
incorporating mortality and treatment rates, we forecast population sizes and
drug sales for all patient segments in the 2005-2015 study period.
Alternative market scenarios: (1) Positive data
followed by approval for lapatinib in the adjuvant setting, (2) positive data
followed by approval for bevacizumab in the adjuvant setting, (3) positive data
followed by approval for both lapatinib and bevacizumab in the
adjuvant setting.
|
