Liver Cancer in China

Emerging Markets -- October 2007

  Introduction:

China has one of the most rapidly growing pharmaceutical markets in the world, as well as a high incidence of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; the major type of primary liver cancer). These factors, combined with increasing access to medical care and strong reception of targeted therapy by both physicians and patients, promise double-digit growth and significant opportunity for multinational pharmaceutical companies.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

China is the most populous country in the world, with more than 1.3 billion citizens in 2006. The risk of developing HCC is the highest worldwide in China because of the pandemic of hepatitis B and hepatitis C there. How will the incidence of HCC change between 2006 and 2016? How will the staging at diagnosis and the drug-treatment rate change in urban and rural regions of China?

Like their counterparts in the United States and Europe, Chinese physicians are most concerned with a drug’s safety and efficacy profile. However, cost is much more of a constraint in HCC treatment in China than in Western countries. How are these factors driving Chinese physicians’ prescribing habits? How do physicians choose between branded Western drugs and Chinese-manufactured equivalents for the treatment of HCC? What are Chinese physicians’ opinions of and experiences with new targeted therapies?

The Chinese HCC market is growing rapidly, characterized by strong, double-digit annual gains in sales. How big was the HCC market in 2006? How large will it be in 2011? How do branded Western drugs fare against Chinese competitors? Which drugs will dominate the market in 2011?

  Scope:

Markets covered: China.

Primary research: 90 physician surveys in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Separate in-depth interviews with 6 medical/epidemiological experts.

Epidemiology: Incidence of HCC: total diagnosed incident cases, in urban and rural China. Ten-year epidemiology forecasts through 2016.

Market forecast features: Our analysis evaluates the size of the population with access to medical care and rates of drug treatment. We include a detailed forecast for HCC drug classes and leading brands for 2006-2011 using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based bottom-up market model.