Rheumatoid Arthritis in China

Emerging Markets -- December 2007

  Introduction:

The rheumatoid arthritis (RA) market in China is entering a new era, driven by the recent introduction of biological agents into a market formerly dominated by palliative agents, such as nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and corticosteroids, and by conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). High-priced biologics will contribute significantly to market growth, even though relatively few patients will benefit from them. In addition, our primary research with Chinese thought leaders and rheumatologists suggests that the diagnosed and drug-treated population will increase in the next five years. Consequently, the Chinese RA market will experience dramatic 33% growth from 2006 to 2011, and sales of RA drugs will triple--from $94 million in 2006 to $298 million in 2011.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

Our epidemiological analysis estimates that there are 1.75 million prevalent cases of RA in China; of these cases, we estimate that 640,000 are diagnosed with the disease and 500,000 are treated with drug therapy. What are the barriers to diagnosis and drug treatment? What factors will lower these barriers and drive improvements in RA diagnosis and drug treatment?

We conducted 90 physician surveys and 16 thought-leader interviews to provide primary research support for our analysis of the Chinese RA market. What are the most popular drugs used in China, and what drives their popularity? What are Chinese physicians’ perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of leading RA therapies?

Our Chinese RA market analysis includes a comprehensive breakdown of the 2006 base year as well as forecast patient shares and sales in 2011. Which agents are the market leaders? How do Chinese-manufactured products fare against Western branded agents?

Biological agents have recently entered the RA market in China. Which agents will emerge as first-line therapies and market leaders? How will Western-manufactured versions of biological agents fare against Chinese-manufactured versions?

  Scope:

Markets covered: China.

Primary research: 90 physician surveys in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Separate, in-depth interviews with 12 physicians in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Fuzhou.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of RA in urban and rural China. Ten-year epidemiology forecast through 2016.

Market forecast features: Our analysis includes a detailed breakdown of agents by class, molecule, and formulation. A detailed forecast describes market drivers and constraints by drug class and leading brands during the period 2006-2011, using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based, bottom-up market model.