Obesity

Pharmacor -- April 2007

  Introduction:

The prevalence of obesity has reached epidemic proportions, yet diagnosis and drug-treatment rates are low. The dearth of effective drug-treatment options and the myriad of untapped drug targets mean that there is plenty of potential for innovation in this expanding market.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

The prevalent obese population in the major markets will grow modestly over the 2005-2015 study period, but sales growth will be robust because of substantial increases in the diagnosis and drug-treatment rates and the availability of more-effective treatments. Who will be responsible for these dramatic changes? Will it be physicians, patients, or governments? Which drugs will benefit the most from this growth?

Rimonabant (Sanofi-Aventis’s Acomplia) is the first antiobesity agent to launch in nearly a decade. How will rimonabant’s introduction affect medical practice? Will its uptake be constrained by lack of reimbursement? What opportunity remains for emerging therapies?

There is high unmet need for therapies that induce significant weight loss; physicians express dissatisfaction with the efficacy of current agents. How would greater efficacy influence prescribing decisions? Which emerging therapies are likely to promote substantial weight loss? What patient share can these drugs capture?

The obesity pipeline is full of novel agents with new mechanisms of action. Which compounds are the most promising and how much market share will they take from current therapies?

  Scope:

Markets: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 47 country-specific interviews with thought leaders in the field.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of overweight, class I/II obesity, and class III obesity.

Population segments in market forecast: Obese, morbidly obese.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 10 drugs; Phase III: 5 drugs; preregistration: 0 drugs; registered: 9 drugs. Coverage of three preclinical and Phase I products.

Alternative market scenarios: (1) severe adverse effects seen with rimonabant following long-term use, (2) widespread reimbursement for antiobesity drugs, (3) follow-on cannabinoid-1 receptor antagonists launch within forecast period, (4) rimonabant does not launch in the United States, and (5) intranasal PYY_3-36 launches within forecast period.