Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Pharmacor -- August 2006

  Introduction:

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD), an undertreated vision-threatening disease affecting people over 50 years of age, will directly impact a large number of people in the generally aging population. Sales of wet AMD therapies will quadruple over the 2005-2015 study period, primarily as a result of the penetration of new, highly efficacious, premium-priced wet AMD treatments such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitors.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

Verteporfin (QLT/Novartis Ophthalmics’ Visudyne), a photosensitizing agent, dominated the AMD market in 2005 and, coupled with photodynamic therapy (PDT), currently reigns as the standard-of-care treatment for wet AMD. As VEGF inhibitors, a new drug class to the AMD market in 2005, gain significant market share over the 2005-2015 study period, who will be the major market leaders? What will be the future standard of care? Which VEGF inhibitor will gain a competitive edge? How will the use of VEGF inhibitors change medical practice?

Pegaptanib sodium ([OSI] Eyetech/Pfizer’s Macugen) and verteporfin/PDT currently provide tremendous therapeutic benefit for wet AMD patients. How will the launch of ranibizumab (Genentech/Novartis Ophthalmics’ Lucentis) affect the wet AMD market in the next ten years? What factors could constrain growth of sales for ranibizumab?

Early-stage treatments for dry AMD such as Othera Pharmaceuticals’ OT-551, Neurotech’s NT-501, and a drug in late clinical development, anecortave acetate (Alcon Pharmaceutical’s Retaane), are poised to capture a segment of the AMD market that is currently untreatable. How beneficial will these dry AMD treatments be? What will be their impact on the dry AMD market over the next ten years?

  Scope:

Markets: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 20 country-specific interviews with ophthalmologists and retinal specialists.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration; subpopulations: wet and dry.

Population segments in market forecast: Wet and dry age-related macular degeneration populations.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 5 drugs; Phase III: 2 drugs; preregistration: 2 drugs; registered: 1 drug. Coverage of 18 select preclinical and Phase I products.

Alternative market scenarios:  (1) Rostaporfin does not launch as a result of a shift in the market to VEGF inhibitors. (2) Squalamine does not launch as a result of the marginal efficacy of the drug, systemic problems related to intravenous administration, and a highly competitive AMD market. (3) Anecortave demonstrates efficacy in the treatment and/or prevention of dry AMD. (4) The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services provides reimbursement for bevacizumab.