Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Pharmacor -- June 2007

  Introduction:

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is projected to be the third-leading cause of morbidity and the sixth-leading cause of mortality worldwide by 2020. Robust market growth during our 2006-2016 study period will be fueled by increasing prevalence, improved diagnosis, high pricing potential of drugs, and significant unmet need, the most pressing of which is the need for a disease-modifying therapy that halts further, life-threatening declines in lung function and/or repairs damaged lung tissue.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

Diagnosis of COPD is expected to improve as adoption of diagnostic guidelines set forth by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD), the American Thoracic Society (ATS), and the European Respiratory Society (ERS) in 2004 continues. How quickly and to what extent will the diagnosed COPD population expand, and what will be the resulting impact on the market?

Several new agents from commonly prescribed COPD drug classes and novel combination therapies combining two drugs that have different mechanisms of action are being developed for COPD and are expected to offer enhanced convenience and/or incremental improvements in efficacy and/or safety over current therapies. Which emerging therapies are poised for the greatest market success, and which current agents will be most impacted by these novel agents?

According to interviewed thought leaders, the most pressing unmet needs in COPD management and treatment remain the needs for disease-modifying therapies, improved diagnosis of the disease, and more-effective smoking cessation strategies. What advances have been made toward meeting these needs, and will any of these needs be met during our 2006-2016 study period?

  Scope:

Markets: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 38 country-specific interviews with thought leaders.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of COPD, subpopulations by severity (mild, moderate, severe, and very severe), and three potential scenarios for growth of the COPD prevalent population over the 2006-2016 study period.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 16 drugs; Phase III: 5 drugs; preregistration: 1 drugs. Coverage of 7 select preclinical and Phase I products.

Market forecast features: We reconciled our 2006 COPD sales estimates based on epidemiological data, treated days, compliance, annual pricing, and country-specific prescribing trends with reported COPD sales and used our patient-based model to forecast sales through 2016.