Alzheimer's Disease

Pharmacor -- June 2008

  Introduction:

The Alzheimer’s disease (AD) market is characterized by a growing diagnosed patient population still treated with symptomatic therapies that do not halt the underlying cause of the disease. Disease-modifying therapies are a critical unmet need in this market, and several agents with this potential are likely to launch during our forecast period, dramatically expanding the AD market.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

Several novel therapies, including the small-molecule dimebolin (Medivation’s Dimebon), along with monoclonal antibodies from Elan/Wyeth and Eli Lilly, are likely to launch for AD in the next ten years, transforming the market. Which therapy will be first to market and which will have the largest impact? How will the new therapies position themselves against current market leaders? What will be the impact of a biologic in a market dominated by small-molecule therapies?

Novel therapies with the potential for slowing the course of the disease are most promising; those in late-stage development target beta amyloid and could provide long-lasting cognitive improvement. How will disease-modifying drugs address the large unmet need in AD? Will there still be an opportunity for symptomatic agents? What factors will constrain the use of disease-modifying drugs?

Earlier and more accurate diagnosis is a significant unmet need in AD. What is the latest thought-leader opinion on emerging biomarkers? How will novel diagnostic tools affect the acceptance of disease-modifying therapies and vice versa?

Reimbursement for expensive novel therapies and diagnostic tools will be constrained by the size of the large AD patient population. What clinical and economic factors will determine reimbursement status for novel therapies? Will payers accept combination therapies?

  Scope:

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 51 country-specific interviews with thought leaders, including neurologists, psychiatrists, and geriatricians.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of AD by region, age, and disease severity.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: nine drugs; Phase III: eight drugs; coverage of seven preclinical and Phase I products with market-disrupting potential.

Market: Incorporating pharmacological treatment of the entire AD population, we forecast drug sales through 2017.

Alternative market scenarios: (1) Monoclonal antibodies have severely restricted patient share as a result of safety concerns; (2) monoclonal antibodies are only prescribed to ApoEe4 negative patients; (3) diagnostic tools and biomarkers for AD do not launch by 2017.