Gastric Cancer in China

Emerging Markets -- April 2008

  Introduction:

China has one of the most rapidly growing pharmaceutical markets in the world, the result of a rapid increase in the incidence of chronic and noninfectious disease among its people. Since the 1970s, cancer incidence and mortality rates have been increasing continually in China. In a 20-year time span from the 1970s to the 1990s, cancer mortality increased by 29%. About two-thirds of gastric cancer (CaG) cases occur in developing countries in Asia and Africa; China alone holds more than 40% of all diagnosed cases worldwide. Combined with increasing access to medical care and strong reception of targeted therapy by both physicians and patients, the Chinese CaG market promises double-digit growth and significant opportunity for multinational pharmaceutical companies.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

China is the most populous country in the world, with more than 1.3 billion citizens in 2007. The risk of developing CaG in China is among the highest in the world, driven by Helicobacter pylori infection and consumption of nitrate-rich smoked foods. How will the incidence of CaG change between 2007 and 2017? How will the staging at diagnosis and the drug-treatment rate change in urban and rural regions of China during our study period?

Like their counterparts in the United States and Europe, Chinese physicians are most concerned with a drug’s safety and efficacy profile. However, cost is much more of a constraint in CaG treatment in China than in Western countries. How are these factors driving Chinese physicians’ prescribing habits? How do physicians choose between branded Western drugs and domestically manufactured equivalents for the treatment of CaG? What are Chinese physicians’ opinions of and experiences with new targeted therapies?

The Chinese CaG market is growing rapidly, characterized by strong, double-digit annual gains in sales. How large was the market in 2007? How large will it be in 2012? How do branded Western drugs fare against Chinese competitors? Which drugs will dominate the market in 2012?

  Scope:

Markets covered: China.

Primary research: 90 physician surveys in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Separate in-depth interviews with six medical experts.

Epidemiology: Incidence of CaG: total diagnosed incident cases, in urban and rural China. Ten-year epidemiology forecasts through 2017.

Market forecast features: Our analysis evaluates the size of the population with access to medical care and rates of drug treatment. We include a detailed forecast for CaG drug classes and leading brands for 2007-2012 using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based bottom-up market model.