Type 2 Diabetes in China

Emerging Markets -- May 2008

  Introduction:

China has one of the most rapidly growing pharmaceutical markets in the world and a vast, rapidly expanding prevalent population of type 2 diabetic patients. Combined with increasing access to medical care and a burgeoning middle class that has newly acquired economic clout, these factors promise double-digit growth in sales and significant opportunity for multinational pharmaceutical companies as demand for Western-branded antidiabetic drugs continues to grow throughout China.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

China is the most populous country in the world, with more than 1.3 billion residents in 2007. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes is at an all-time high in China as a result of the country’s aging population and the influence of urbanization. Will the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in China change drastically between 2007 and 2017? What influence will increased public health awareness of diabetes have on future diagnosis and drug-treatment rates in urban and rural regions of China?

Similar to behaviors of U.S. and European physicians, the prescribing patterns of Chinese physicians are most influenced by a drug’s efficacy and safety profiles. What other factors drive Chinese physicians’ prescribing habits? How do physicians choose between a Western-branded drug and a Chinese-manufactured equivalent for the treatment of type 2 diabetes?

The Chinese type 2 diabetes market is growing more rapidly than the markets of the United States, Europe, and Japan and boasts strong, annual, double-digit growth in sales for all drug classes. Which agents, current and emerging, will be the key players driving market growth over the forecast period? How are Western-branded drugs expected to fare against Chinese competitors over the forecast period? Which drugs will dominate the market by 2012?

  Scope:

Markets covered: China.

Primary research: 90 physician surveys in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Separate, in-depth interviews with 20 medical experts.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in urban and rural China. Ten-year epidemiology forecast, 2007-2017.

Market forecast features: Our analysis evaluates the size of the population that has access to medical care, rates of diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, and rates of drug treatment with Western drugs. We include a detailed forecast for nine antidiabetic drug classes and leading products, from 2007-2012, using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based, bottom-up market model.