Renal Cell Carcinoma in China

Emerging Markets -- June 2008

  Introduction:

China has one of the most rapidly growing pharmaceutical markets in the world, as well as a rapidly increasing population of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Combined with increasing access to medical care and strong reception of targeted therapy by both physicians and patients, these factors promise double-digit growth and significant opportunity for multinational pharmaceutical companies with an interest in the RCC market.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

China is the most populous country in the world—more than 1.3 billion citizens in 2007. The risk of developing RCC in China is increasing rapidly because of the aging population and high smoking and obesity rates. How will the incidence of RCC change between 2007 and 2017? How will the staging at diagnosis and the drug-treatment rate change in urban and rural regions of China?

Like their counterparts in the United States and Europe, Chinese physicians are most concerned with a drug’s safety and efficacy profile. However, cost is much more of a constraint in RCC treatment in China than in Western countries. How are these factors driving Chinese physicians’ prescribing habits? How do physicians choose between branded Western drugs and domestically manufactured equivalents for the treatment of RCC? What are Chinese physicians’ opinions of and experiences with new targeted therapies?

The Chinese RCC market is growing rapidly, characterized by double-digit annual growth rates. What was the size of the RCC market in 2007? How large will it be in 2012? How do branded Western drugs fare against Chinese competitors? Which drugs will dominate the market in 2012?

  Scope:

Markets covered: China.

Primary research: 90 physician surveys in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Separate in-depth interviews with 6 medical experts in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Nanjing.

Epidemiology: Incidence of RCC by stage: total diagnosed incident cases, in urban and rural China. Ten-year epidemiology forecasts through 2017.

Market forecast features: Our analysis evaluates the size of the population with access to medical care and rates of treatment with chemotherapy, immunotherapy, or targeted therapy. We include a detailed forecast for RCC drug classes and leading brands for 2007-2012 using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based bottom-up market model.