Hepatitis B Virus in India

Emerging Markets -- August 2008

  Introduction:

India has one of the most rapidly growing pharmaceutical markets in the world, a strong pharmaceutical development and manufacturing industry, and a large number of people with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV). Combined with increasing access to medical care and a burgeoning middle class that has newly acquired economic clout, these factors promise double-digit annual growth in sales and significant opportunity for multinational pharmaceutical companies as demand for Western HBV antivirals continues to grow throughout India.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

India is the second most populous country in the world, with more than 1.1 billion residents in 2008. While nearly 3% of the population is infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), very few patients receive allopathic treatment for the disease. How will HBV diagnosis and antiviral treatment rates change between 2007 and 2012? What factors will contribute to such changes?

Indian clinicians choose which antiviral therapy to prescribe based on the drug’s efficacy and safety profiles. What other factors drive Indian clinicians’ prescribing habits? How do clinicians choose between a Western-branded drug and an Indian-manufactured equivalent for the treatment of HBV?

The majority of the HBV prevalent population lives in rural settings. However, HBV prevalence in urban areas of India alone is larger than that of many Western nations. Where are the key opportunities for growth in the HBV antiviral market? Which agents, current and emerging, will be the key players driving market growth over the forecast period? Which drugs will dominate the market in 2012?

  Scope:

Markets covered: India.

Primary research: 120 clinicians surveyed in Delhi/New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Jaipur, and Lucknow. Separate in-depth interviews with ten Indian medical experts.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of HBV in urban and rural India. Ten-year (2007-2017) epidemiology forecast.

Market forecast features: Our analysis evaluates the size of the population that has access to medical care, rates of chronic HBV diagnosis, and rates of drug treatment with allopathic medicines. We include a detailed 2007-2012 forecast for two HBV antiviral classes and leading products using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based bottom-up market model.