Hepatitis C Virus in China

Emerging Markets -- September 2008

  Introduction:

China has the largest prevalent population of hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients in the world and a fast-growing pharmaceutical market. Add modest increases in diagnosis and drug-treatment rates, changes in medical practice, and an improved healthcare and reimbursement system, and China’s HCV market is poised for double-digit growth. The result is significant opportunity for multinational pharmaceutical companies as demand for Western-branded HCV therapies continues to grow throughout China, especially in urban regions.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

HCV is the one of the leading causes of end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma in China, where an estimated 46 million people are infected with the virus. How will the prevalence of HCV change between 2007 and 2017? How will diagnosis and drug-treatment rates change in urban and rural regions of China? What are key factors that will influence the diagnosis and drug-treatment rates?

Like those of their counterparts in the United States and Europe, the prescribing patterns of Chinese physicians are most influenced by a drug’s efficacy profile. What other factors drive Chinese physicians’ prescribing habits with respect to HCV therapeutics? How do physicians choose between branded Western drugs and Chinese-manufactured equivalents for the treatment of HCV?

The Chinese HCV market is growing more rapidly than the markets in the United States, Europe, or Japan, with strong, annual, double-digit gains in sales of all drug classes. What was the size of the Chinese HCV market in 2007? How large will the market be in 2012? What factors will drive growth in this market? What are the opportunities for HCV drug manufacturers and developers?

  Scope:

Markets covered: China.

Primary research: 90 physician surveys in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Separate in-depth interviews with 28 medical experts.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of HCV: total prevalence; in urban and rural China; by age group; by gender. Ten-year epidemiology forecasts through 2017.

Market forecast features: Our analysis evaluates the size of the population that has access to medical care, rates of HCV diagnosis, and rates of treatment with Western drugs. We include a detailed forecast for two HCV drug classes and leading products from 2007-2012, using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based, bottom-up market model.