 Spectrum --
June 2008
 Introduction:
The commercial potential of products in development is
vitally import to the pharmaceutical industry, which is now beset with
productivity concerns, looming patent expiries, and declining growth rates.
Many methods are used to produce sales forecasts, but a key element in these
projections concerns the product’s staying power or longevity. In this report,
we provide a logical analysis based on 12 years of data (1994 to 2006) to
support a longer average product longevity than the norm, which is widely used
in industry sales forecasts today. We also discuss a much-needed positive
indicator for the pharmaceutical industry relating to the number of new
products reaching the market.
Get the Answers You Need to Shape Your Strategy:
 A major issue in pharmaceutical development is the potential
commercial value of a new product. What do successful, innovative products
have in common? What are the trends in product quality since the 1990s? How
does the quality and commercial potential of new products compare with products
launched earlier?
A considerable increase in product quality has been occurring
since the mid 1990s, whether mediated by longevity or not. What factors are
leading to an increase in the commercial value of new products and an increase
in their market staying power? What factors are contributing to these positive
trends? Are these trends likely to continue?
Going forward, powerful forces will continue to affect product
quality, both positively and negatively, in the next decade. Which of these
forces are of greatest concern? Will the combination of these forces exert a
positive or negative influence overall? How long can we expect current trends
to continue?
Scope:
Product quality and potential commercial value:
assessment of quality over time, including 12 years of data from annual cohorts
of global best-selling drugs; burgeoning blockbusters; global versus local
products; new active substances.
Product longevity: methodology to calculate product
longevity; trends in product staying power; 97 products ranked in the top 50
global best-selling products for 1998, 2001, 2002, or 2006.
A dynamic market: products entering and exiting the
global best-selling markets; sales thresholds; factors influencing the market.
Outlook: patent expiries and product attrition rates;
the role of biologics; pricing trends; generics erosion; new product promotion.
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