Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Pharmacor -- June 2008

  Introduction:

The disease burden from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is extensive across the United States, Europe, and Japan; however, only a minority of the prevalent COPD population was formally diagnosed in 2007. Improvements in COPD awareness and education, expanding aging populations, and increased uptake of expensive maintenance therapies will fuel robust sales growth for the COPD market through 2017. Despite the market’s size and potential, the COPD pipeline lacks any truly innovative pharmacological approaches that can provide disease modification. This dearth represents a huge opportunity for drug developers.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

Historically, COPD diagnosis rates have been low and remain low compared with diagnosis rates of more-mature markets such as the asthma market. Nevertheless, sales for COPD drugs in 2007 reached $6.6 billion and are expected to rise to more than $11 billion in 2017. What factors will contribute to this market expansion and what factors will constrain the market from further growth? How can drug developers tap into the commercial opportunity in the COPD market?

Results from the TORCH and INSPIRE trials have demonstrated a clear role for the long-acting beta₂ agonist (LABA)/inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) combination salmeterol/fluticasone (GlaxoSmithKline’s Advair/Seretide/Adoair) in the COPD population, thus challenging the role of the long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) tiotropium (Boehringer Ingelheim/Pfizer’s Spiriva). What impact will results from the UPLIFT trial (expected in 2008) have on the use of tiotropium and other LAMAs? What are physicians’ expectations of this trial? How will LAMA-containing products fare against LABA/ICS combinations during the 2007-2017 study period?

No disease-modifying therapies are expected to launch within our forecast period; however, many other new therapies will enter the COPD market, including several new LABA/ICS combinations, LAMAs and LABA/LAMA combinations. Which drugs will emerge over the next ten years, and which ones could become the market leaders? Which types of emerging treatments are physicians most eager to prescribe? What impact will these emerging agents have on existing market-leading drugs?

  Scope:

Markets: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 42 country-specific interviews with thought-leading pulmonologists.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of COPD in patients aged 40 or older; subpopulations by severity (mild, moderate, and severe/very severe); growth potential of the COPD population over the 2007-2017 study period.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 30 drugs; Phase III: 6 drugs. Coverage of 1 select preclinical and Phase I product.

Market forecast features: We reconciled our 2007 COPD sales estimations based on epidemiological data, treated days, compliance, annual pricing, and country-specific prescribing trends with reported COPD sales and used our patient-based model to forecast sales through 2017.

Alternative market scenarios: We provide an alternative market scenario that assumes that the FDA will grant Boehringer Ingelheim’s albuterol/ipratropium combination, Combivent, essential use designation until December 31, 2010.