Prostate Cancer

Pharmacor -- June 2008

  Introduction:

Prostate cancer (CaP) is a disease of huge commercial and clinical significance; 17% of men are diagnosed with CaP at some point in their lives. With the recent failure of two drugs in Phase III trials for hormone-refractory disease, there is an urgent unmet need for therapies that can improve overall survival in this population.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

There are no therapies proven to improve survival for patients who are ineligible for or who fail docetaxel (Sanofi-Aventis’s Taxotere). Which therapies in development will be able to meet this unmet need in this patient population?

We forecast annual growth of 4.0% for the CaP market from 2012 through 2017 despite aggressive generic erosion of several current therapies. What is responsible for this growth in sales?

Medical oncologists have an increasingly involved role in the management of CaP patients. How will this involvement affect which therapies are used and which patients they are used in?

Two vaccines—GVAX (Cell Genesys/Takeda) and sipuleucel-T (Dendreon’s Provenge)—are in Phase III development for CaP. What do physicians think about the potential of vaccines in the treatment of CaP? In which patient populations will the vaccines be used?

  Scope:

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 21 country-specific interviews with urologists and oncologists.

Epidemiology: Incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases with stage I-IV disease.

Population segments in market forecast: Stage I/II, stage III, biochemical recurrence, stage IV, nonmetastatic hormone-refractory, metastatic hormone-refractory, and second-line metastatic hormone-refractory CaP.

 Emerging therapies: Phase II: 20 drugs; Phase III: 7 drugs; preregistration: 3 drugs.

Market forecast features: In this report, in contrast to our last report, we have used a new survival-based epidemiological model to calculate the pool of treatable patients in populations that patients can progress to from an earlier stage. For CaP, these are the stage IV and biochemical recurrence treatable pools. These populations are known as “progressed incidence populations.” Using a proprietary patient-flow model incorporating mortality, we forecast population sizes and drug sales for CaP patient segments through 2017.

Alternative market scenarios: (1) Vaccines (GVAX and sipuleucel-T) fail to launch for CaP and (2) zibotentan gains an indication for non-metastatic CaP.