 Pharmacor --
March 2005
 You Need to Know
The launch of disease-modifying
therapies will revolutionize the Alzheimer's disease (AD) market during
our forecast period (2003-2013), but which agents will emerge as leaders and
which stand to lose? What other events will radically alter the AD landscape at
the end of our forecast period?
Introduction
As the baby-boom generation ages,
the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is becoming a significant
public health burden in the seven major pharmaceutical markets under study
(United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan), yet
no diagnostic tool or cure exists for the disease. In this report, we describe
how the market landscape will be revolutionized by the launch of disease-modifying
therapies. Our research indicates that acetylcholinesterase inhibitors
(AChEIs), which alleviate disease symptoms but do not alter the course of AD,
will continue to dominate the AD market during the first half of our forecast
period; however, beyond 2008, their sales will suffer because of the expiry of
their patents and the launch of disease-modifying therapies. Experts
interviewed by Decision Resources indicate that the most promising emerging
therapies are drugs targeting amyloid plaques, a major factor underlying
neurodegeneration in AD, because these drugs attempt to alter the course of the
disease and thereby slow cognitive decline. We anticipate that two drugs,
Neurochem's Alzhemed and Myriad Genetics' R-flurbiprofen, will
launch near the middle of our forecast period and will capture a significant
portion of the AD market.
Key Findings
 Prevalent cases of AD in the seven major markets numbered more
than 5 million in 2003 and will grow modestly over our study period as the
population ages in all markets. We forecast much more robust sales growth during
the second half of our study period, from 2008 to 2013, when growth will
be at a rate of more than 10% per year, because newly available
disease-modifying therapies and a diagnostic tool will launch
midway through our study period. These agents will increase both diagnosis and
drug-treatment rates.
Therapies that can slow or halt the progression of the disease,
thus preventing neurological damage and cognitive decline, represent the
greatest unmet need in AD. No disease-modifying drugs are currently available,
and the acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) now prescribed treat only the
symptoms of the disease, particularly the patient's cognitive and
functional decline, without addressing the cause of the disease.
The launch of disease-modifying therapies during our study period
will represent a major breakthrough in the AD market. These drugs will
significantly carve into AChEIs' market share by the end of our study
period because they offer the promise of slowing the neurodegeneration
associated with AD and possibly ameliorating cognitive dysfunction.
The majority of disease-modifying drugs in development target the
formation of amyloid plaques, one of the hallmarks of the disease, yet no therapies
targeting neurofibrillary tangles, the second component of the disease, are in
clinical development.
Why Buy This Report?
Explore the shifting dynamics of the AD market over the course of
our study period.
Assess the commercial impact of disease-modifying therapies on
the AD market.
Understand the opportunities afforded to the development and
commercialization of AD therapies after the launch of novel diagnostic tools.
Uncover the market opportunities and hurdles for behavioral
therapies in this distinct patient population.
Be informed of the latest theories surrounding the
pathophysiology of this poorly understood disease.
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