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Type 2 Diabetes Drugs – Prospects for Growth in the Top 50 U.S. Markets

Authors
Nathan Calloway, M.A.
Paul Santoro
Jason Labonte, Ph.D.
Catherine Vasilakis-Scaramozza, M.P.H.
SAMM -- September 2007

  In This Issue...

Introduction

Competition in the generic-heavy type 2 diabetes market is intensifying as brands struggle to attain and hold market share. In this edition of Strategic Assessment of Managed Markets, Decision Resources examines the relationship between a drug’s formulary placement and level of access in each of the 50 largest US cities and ties this directly to the drug’s performance. In each city we examine the five largest managed care organizations’ formulary tier structure and prescribing limitations placed upon antidiabetic agents. In addition we are introducing a truly unique and insightful examination of the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and the projected drug treatment rates for each of the 50 major markets to identify areas of under-treatment and possible growth opportunities.

In this report we examine the dynamic type 2 diabetes market managed care strategy within the United States among branded products.  Recent safety concerns with PPAR-gamma agonist formulations have made an early impact in market share among the top brands in the type 2 diabetes market. Actos and Avandia, two products in the middle of their life cycle, have held the top two brand positions within this market for some time, but increasing competition from new DPP-IV introductions Januvia and Janumet threatens to challenge their market dominance. The DPP-IV introductions are gaining attention as the next breakthrough in diabetes treatment and are making progress building market share within the top 50 MSAs, especially considering that they currently have very limited formulary access within these markets. Fixed-dose combinations constitute the middle of the type 2 diabetes market yet may see their overall share decline in the wake of PPAR-gamma agonist safety concerns and the introduction of new agents into the marketplace. Byetta, an injectable GLP-1 analogue, exhibits strong growth and the improved delivery profile of newer formulations will also influence Byetta’s market share.

For easy review we provide both an in-depth report that highlights the findings of our research and three Excel-based dashboards organized for each city (MSA), health plan, and branded drug. Each dashboard examines the dominant drivers of performance such as formulary tier status, restrictions to access, co-pay for generic, preferred brand and non-preferred brand. In addition, we examine the plans spend level by generics and brand (preferred and non-preferred) and, in the MSA dash, we provide disease prevalence numbers, drug-treated estimates, dominant managed care organizations ranked by commercially insured Rx lives, and the formulary status for major brands prescribed to control diabetes.

This combined insight provides a unique examination of the type 2 diabetes drug market viewed through the filters of formulary access and MSA prevalence to drug treated ratio to provide actionable avenues to increase market share of marketed drugs or to plan the launch of a novel agent into the type 2 diabetes market.

Questions Answered In This Report:

Opportunities for overall market growth: By looking at regional epidemiology data and regional treatment rates we identify the largest opportunity areas within the United States. What is the type 2 diabetes prevalence at the local level, and is it driven by age, gender, race, or socioeconomic status? Which markets have the highest treatment rates based on local prescription volumes of type 2 diabetes drugs?

Formulary Control: Formulary data collected for the top 5 commercial insurers among the top 50 MSAs informs comparative analysis of how dyslipidemia brands are positioned within regional markets. Which markets are the most restrictive in terms of plan-specific demand controls? What percentage of beneficiaries access Avandia at tier 2 versus Actos?

Market Dynamics: Strategic summarization and organization of key managed care data metrics facilitates identification of markets and plans of opportunity for key brands. In which markets should Merck contract for better formulary access? Where should Amylin and Lilly focus for more effective pull-through?

Includes:

- Eleven key type 2 diabetes brands: Actoplus Met, Actos, Avandamet, Avandaryl, Avandia, Byetta, Janumet, Januvia, Prandin, Starlix, Symlin

- Performance of competing generic drugs: Alpha-Glucosidase Inhibitors, Biguanides, Sulfonylureas and other Fixed-Dose Combinations

- Top 50 MSAs: Atlanta, Austin, Baltimore, Bergen, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Worth, Greensboro, Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Nashville, Nassau, New Haven, New York, Newark, Norfolk, Oakland, Orange County, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Portland, Raleigh, Riverside, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa, Washington D.C., and West Palm Beach

- Top 20 health plans and formularies: Aetna, BCBS of Florida, BCBS of Massachusetts, BCBS of Michigan, Blue Shield of California, CareFirst, CIGNA HealthCare, Coventry Health Care, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Health Care Service Corporation, Health Net, Highmark, Horizon BCBS of New Jersey, Independence Blue Cross, Kaiser Foundation Health Plans, Medica, The Regence Group, Tufts Associated Health Plans, UnitedHealth Group, WellPoint

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