Brands & Strategies: Atypical Antipsychotics

Brands & Strategies -- February 2008

  In This Issue...

Introduction

The atypical antipsychotics market in the United States, Europe, and Japan, valued at an estimated $15.9 billion in sales at ex-manufacturer level in 2007, is expected to expand to over $17.8 billion by 2011, before shrinking to $13.5 billion in 2012. The primary drivers of market growth will be the addition of new agents, new formulations of currently marketed drugs, and approvals in new indications such as major depression and generalized anxiety disorder. However, the launch of generic formulations of risperidone, olanzapine, quetiapine, ziprasidone, and paliperidone will lead to an overall decline of the market during the forecast period.

The atypical antipsychotics market has undergone huge shifts in market leadership that will continue over the forecast period. Eli Lilly’s Zyprexa has been the U.S. sales leader for many years. However, in 2006, AstraZeneca’s Seroquel overtook Zyprexa’s leading position in the U.S. market, and Janssen’s Risperdal overtook Zyprexa’s position as the sales leader for the seven major markets. Changes in market leadership will continue over the forecast period as four of the five leading atypicals (Risperdal, Zyprexa, Seroquel, and Pfizer’s Geodon) face generic competition.

Questions Answered in This Report

- Janssen led the atypical antipsychotics market in 2007, with an estimated market share of 27.7%, followed closely by AstraZeneca with 25.4% and Eli Lilly with 24.8%; however, by 2012, Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka Pharmaceuticals will hold approximately 37.1% of the market. What strategies will Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka follow to secure a dominant market position in the atypical antipsychotics market by the end of the forecast period?

- Four of the top five leading atypical antipsychotics--Janssen’s Risperdal, Eli Lilly’s Zyprexa, AstraZeneca’s Seroquel, and Pfizer’s Geodon—will face generic erosion before 2012. How will Janssen, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer fare in the market following the patent expiry of their leading brands? What strategies are these companies employing to face generic erosion and will they be successful?

- Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka’s Abilify was approved by the FDA for adjunctive therapy of major depression in November 2007. AstraZeneca’s Seroquel will likely be approved for major depression and generalized anxiety disorder in 2009. How will the approval of these agents in new indications affect sales of key competing agents? Which indications will see the greatest growth in branded atypical sales? How will each indication be affected by the launch of generics?

- Janssen’s Invega is expected to be the most successful of the emerging atypical brands, despite slow uptake in the first three months of its launch. What element of this brand will contribute to its success? How will other emerging drugs fare in a mature market that includes generics? What brands will be replaced by these emerging agents?

Scope

Markets Covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.

Competitive Analysis: Detailed discussion of major competitors including Eli Lilly, Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Otsuka Pharmaceutical, and Pfizer; as well as emerging competitors Wyeth, Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Schering-Plough/Organon, H. Lundbeck, Dainippon Sumitomo, Vanda, and Forest Laboratories. Included for each competitor is an analysis of the company’s neuroscience product portfolio, strategic positioning, and development pipeline in neuroscience. The report features an in-depth discussion of leading brands, sales and market position, strengths/weaknesses/opportunities/threats (SWOT) analysis, ongoing postmarketing clinical trials, and strategic initiatives.

Physician Perception of Key Brands: Analysis of physician perceptions of the atypical antipsychotic market based on a custom survey of 31 U.S.-based primary care physicians and 31 U.S.-based psychiatrists. The survey is brand-focused and examines physician perceptions of key competitors, brand attributes, messaging, and uptake of emerging agents.

Epidemiology: Total prevalent and diagnosed cases for each indication in each of the major markets are presented for 2007 and 2012. Total drug-treated cases for each indication in each of the major markets are presented in an annualized forecast from 2007 to 2012.

Market Forecast: Annualized sales forecasts for branded agents, including the uptake of new agents, are presented by region, indication, formulation, and brand from 2007 to 2012.